NORMAL WEATHER
I have a system for predicting the weather. I watch the weather forecast on TV and predict the exact opposite. I am right about 50% of the time. You may think I’m joking, but it really works. Try it for yourself, and you’ll see that coming up with a valid weather forecast is not easy even for professionals. It won’t be exactly 50%, but it will be close enough to make the point that there are so many factors that influence the weather that it is nearly impossible to predict rain or shine for tomorrow or next week and consistently get it right.
A friend of mine recently wrote on Facebook, “You don’t know what the weather is going to do anymore. It is no longer normal”. If the weather is no longer normal, please tell me what is normal. How do you identify it? And when was the last time the weather was normal?
In the year 1981, I decided that it would be nice to have a record of the precipitation at Hacienda Barú, so I started measuring the daily rainfall and writing it down in my agenda. My first rain gauge was a tin can setting on top of a post, and a six-inch plastic ruler. Every morning at 07:00 am I would measure the water in the can, write it down in my agenda, and empty the can. After ten years the Costa Rica weather bureau heard about my rain gauge and came to see me. They asked if I would give them a copy of my precipitation record and if I would be willing to manage a more sophisticated system of measuring and recording the rainfall and the high and low temperatures. I agreed to both, and they brought a very nice rain gauge and two thermometers, one to measure the highest temperature of the last 24 hours and the other to measure the lowest temperature. About 15 years later they brought us an electronic weather station that sends all that information and more to the Costa Rica weather bureau daily via the internet.